Celebrity statistician Nate Silver has been watching the Trumpcare legislative saga closely, just as he did with the passage of Obamacare and its fallout on the Democratic members of Congress who voted for it.
In analyzing what the recent successful Trumpcare vote in the House could mean for the 2018 midterm election, Silver came to a conclusion that certainly does not bode well for the Republican party or Trump’s ability to pass any meaningful hard-right legislation starting in 2019.
Explained Silver, “If Republican members should suffer a similar penalty for voting for the AHCA — somewhere in the neighborhood of 15 points — it could put dozens of GOP-held seats in play. Some 33 Republicans won their seats by 14 percentage points or less in 20161; of those, 27 voted for the AHCA.” He added, “Republicans in the next tier or two down could also be vulnerable, however, because the overall political climate is likely to be a lot worse for Republicans than it was in 2016. In 2016, Republicans won the aggregate popular vote for the U.S. House by about 1 percentage point.”
Silver continued, “Democrats currently have a 5- to 6-point lead in polls of the 2018 House vote, however. Moreover, the numbers for the president’s party usually get worse over the course of the midterm cycle as more voters tune into the political process. There could easily be an overall partisan swing of 5 to 10 percentage points against Republicans, therefore. It’s not quite clear how this partisan swing would interact with the AHCA penalty — whether you’d add them together or whether that’s double-counting — but it should be enough to make a lot of Republican incumbents nervous. There are 58 Republicans who won by less than 20 points in 20162 and who voted for the AHCA.” Explained website Politicus USA about Silver’s analysis, “Democrats will need to win 24 seats in 2018 if the incumbent parties win in each House special election. As you can see from the numbers above, there are 27 vulnerable Republicans who voted for the ACA. There are also 23 Republican-held Congressional districts that voted for Hillary Clinton. With Trump’s approval ratings already in the dumpster and with House Republicans getting less popular by the second, Democrats are moving from a favorable political climate to the sort of election that results in a blue wave. Democratic voters are already motivated, active, and paying attention. The House Republican vote on Trumpcare only serves to add fuel to an already raging fire.” Do you think Silver is correct?